Cybersecurity experts are warning that the rapid advancement of quantum computing could fundamentally reshape digital security by rendering widely used public-key cryptographic algorithms vulnerable in the coming years. Although current quantum computers are not yet capable of breaking encryption standards such as RSA and Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC), security professionals caution that cybercriminals are already preparing for that future through a strategy known as "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later."
Under this approach, attackers intercept and store encrypted data today with the expectation that future quantum computers will eventually possess enough computational power to decrypt the information.
Experts Predict Arrival of "Q-Day"
According to the Global Risk Institute's 2025 Quantum Threat Timeline Report, more than half of surveyed cybersecurity experts believe a cryptographically relevant quantum computer could emerge within the next 15 years. This anticipated milestone, commonly referred to as "Q-Day," marks the point at which quantum systems could compromise widely deployed public-key encryption.
Recognising the growing threat, government agencies have begun establishing migration timelines for quantum-resistant cryptography.
The U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) has announced that all new national security systems must support quantum-resistant algorithms beginning January 1, 2027, with complete migration across critical infrastructure targeted by 2035.
Similarly, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has proposed phasing out RSA-2048 and ECC P-256 after 2030, with their use expected to be fully discontinued after 2035 under its evolving post-quantum cryptography roadmap.
Long-Lived Digital Credentials Face the Greatest Risk
Security researchers note that not all encrypted information carries the same long-term value.
While temporary session data may lose relevance within weeks or months, long-lived digital credentials—including administrator accounts, service accounts, certificates, cryptographic keys, and privileged access credentials—may remain valuable for many years.
These assets are particularly vulnerable under the "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" strategy because attackers can archive encrypted communications today and attempt decryption once quantum capabilities mature.
The challenge becomes even greater as enterprises increasingly depend on Non-Human Identities (NHIs) such as:
- Service accounts
- API keys
- Machine identities
- Automated application credentials
- Cloud workload identities
Unlike user accounts, these machine identities are often poorly inventoried and infrequently rotated, making them attractive targets for future cryptographic attacks.
Organisations Urged to Begin Quantum Migration Now
Cybersecurity specialists emphasize that migrating large organisations to post-quantum cryptography is a long-term undertaking that can span five to fifteen years, with the initial discovery and inventory phase alone taking up to two years in complex enterprise environments.
Experts recommend that organisations immediately begin:
- Identifying all cryptographic assets across their infrastructure.
- Cataloguing certificates, encryption keys, service accounts and machine identities.
- Assessing systems that rely on RSA and ECC algorithms.
- Prioritising protection of long-lived credentials rather than short-lived encrypted data.
- Implementing crypto-agility strategies that allow future algorithm replacement with minimal disruption.
Many organisations are also adopting hybrid cryptography, combining traditional encryption with quantum-resistant algorithms during the transition period to maintain compatibility while improving future resilience.
Technology vendors have already begun integrating post-quantum protections into commercial products. Several security platforms introduced hybrid Kyber Key Encapsulation Mechanisms (KEMs) during 2025 as part of broader efforts to prepare enterprise infrastructure for the post-quantum era.
Preparing for the Next Era of Cybersecurity
While practical quantum attacks remain a future concern, cybersecurity leaders increasingly agree that preparation cannot wait until quantum computers become operational.
Governments, regulators, financial institutions and critical infrastructure providers worldwide are accelerating their transition toward quantum-safe cryptographic standards to protect sensitive information against future decryption capabilities.
For organisations managing long-term confidential data, digital identities and critical infrastructure, early planning is expected to become a key component of enterprise cyber resilience in the coming decade.
Shunyatax Global Insight
Quantum computing represents one of the most transformative developments in modern cybersecurity. Although today's encryption remains secure against existing computing technology, the prospect of future quantum attacks has shifted industry focus toward proactive migration rather than reactive response. Organisations that inventory cryptographic assets, adopt crypto-agile architectures and begin implementing post-quantum standards today will be significantly better positioned to protect sensitive information in the quantum era.
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