Israel’s first exit polls showed the opposition bloc with a narrow lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political camp after voting ended on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. However, the projections indicated that neither bloc had secured the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset, leaving the potential shape of the next government uncertain.
According to the AFP report published by The Hindu, Israel’s main television pollsters — Channels 11, 12 and 13 — projected that the opposition bloc would win between 52 and 53 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to secure around 50 seats.
Despite the bloc-level projections, Netanyahu’s Likud party was expected to remain the largest single party, with an estimated 24 or 25 seats.
Exit Polls Show a Closely Divided Parliament
The projections suggested that Israel’s next government could depend on negotiations among parties beyond the two main blocs. With 120 seats in the Knesset, a party or coalition generally needs at least 61 seats to command a parliamentary majority.
The projected opposition tally fell short of that threshold, as did the estimate for Netanyahu’s bloc. The final distribution of seats and the positions taken by smaller parties could therefore play an important role in determining the next steps.
Exit polls are estimates based on responses gathered around election day. They are not official results, and their projections can differ from the final count. The seat figures reported on Wednesday morning should consequently be treated as preliminary indications rather than a confirmed parliamentary outcome.
Opposition Leaders Claim Public Rejection of Netanyahu
Following the initial projections, opposition leader Yair Lapid said Netanyahu’s bloc had suffered a “crushing defeat.” Left-wing leader Yair Golan also declared that the public had “fired the Netanyahu government,” according to the supplied report.
These statements reflected the opposition’s interpretation of the early projections. However, the exit polls did not establish that the opposition had secured enough seats to form a government independently.
Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the Yashar party, was also a prominent figure in the election. The party was projected to win between 21 and 23 seats in the initial exit-poll estimates, making it one of the largest groups in the next parliament.
Channels Television+1
Smaller Parties Could Influence Coalition Talks
The two Arab-led groupings, Ra’am and the Joint List, were projected to win a combined 17 or 18 seats in the initial exit polls. Their parliamentary representation could become important in discussions about forming a government, although political differences and coalition commitments may complicate negotiations.
The Times of Israel+1
The final balance of seats will determine which parties have a realistic path to assembling a governing coalition. Even a bloc that finishes ahead of its rival may struggle to form a government if it cannot secure sufficient parliamentary support.
Final Results Remain Crucial
The early projections indicated a closely divided Knesset, with Likud potentially remaining the largest individual party while the broader opposition grouping held a narrow lead in the first exit polls.
Later exit-poll updates also showed some variation between broadcasters, reinforcing the uncertainty surrounding the result. As of the reports available on October 28, neither major camp had a clear majority in the 120-seat parliament.
The Jerusalem Post+1
The official count and subsequent coalition negotiations will be essential in determining who can form Israel’s next government.