Global urbanization increased from 1.19 billion to 4.46 billion people between 1970 and 2021, while the Earth's surface temperature increased by 1.19 degrees Celsius over the same period. Cities have contributed significantly to climate change as economic engines.
Thriving: Making Cities Green, Resilient, and Inclusive in a Changing Climate, a recent World Bank report contends that cities may hold the key to resolving the climate catastrophe. Nearly 70% of the world's population will reside in cities by 2050.
The report investigates the relationship between cities and climate change by looking at over 10,000 cities to see how green, resilient, and inclusive they are.
The Current State of Cities: Sustainability, Adaptation, and Inclusivity
Cities and their contribution to climate change have become a significant concern, particularly in high- and upper-middle-income countries. A staggering 70% of human-generated greenhouse gas emissions, predominantly carbon dioxide (CO2), originate from urban areas worldwide. However, it is worth noting that cities in lower-income countries only accounted for approximately 14% of global urban CO2 emissions in 2015. The key challenge lies in enabling the development of these cities without replicating the emission patterns observed in wealthier nations. The achievement of global net-zero emissions by 2050 hinges on addressing this critical issue.
Cities in low- and lower-middle-income countries face the highest projected risks associated with climate change. By 2030-2040, these cities are expected to experience significantly greater exposure to various hazards, including floods, heat stress, tropical cyclones, sea-level rise, water stress, and wildfires, compared to their counterparts in higher-income countries. Moreover, due to their lower resilience, these cities suffer more severe economic consequences resulting from extreme weather events and climate-related shocks.
An illustration of this can be seen when extreme weather events occur, prompting rural populations to seek shelter in urban areas. Prolonged droughts in rural regions often accelerate urban expansion, leading to the establishment of informal settlements on the outskirts of cities and flood-prone areas with limited access to essential services.
Cities in low- and middle-income countries face higher levels of air pollution. On average, cities in high-income countries exhibit lower concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) than cities in lower-income countries. Additionally, PM2.5 emissions from the residential and transportation sectors of a city, which are directly influenced by urban.
A Compass for Effective City Policies
To foster thriving cities that are green, resilient, and inclusive in the face of climate change, policymakers must address three key questions outlined in this report. These questions are: What policy instruments are available? Who has the authority to implement these instruments? How can policymakers prioritize and sequence policy choices for effective implementation?
WHAT. Policy instruments encompass five essential elements known as the five I's: information, incentives, insurance, integration, and investments. These instruments work synergistically, producing stronger outcomes when implemented together.
WHO. In terms of governance, local governments play a crucial role in driving climate action due to the interaction between traditional urban stresses and climate change-related stresses. By collaborating with national governments, the private sector, and civil society, cities possess significant policy influence.
HOW. To ensure the prosperity of their cities, policymakers must navigate and combine policy bundles derived from the five I's. The specific combination of interventions, their sequence, and the prioritization of outcomes will vary depending on the unique characteristics of each city, including its size, level of risk, and stage of development.
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